Drier days and higher temperatures will amplify evaporation, increasing the desertification of already arid areas and affecting natural ecosystems as well as increasing pressure on the water supply for agriculture and cities. Lake Powell, the lake created by Glen Canyon Dam, at two points in time about four years apart. More on that later Now, lets take a sojourn through some North American Monsoon basics (1). Climate change in the Southwest The global rise in temperatures will affect different locations on earth in unique ways. While most of the evidence for cooling at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary comes from the deep sea, fossil mammals in the Rocky Mountains show clear evidence of a change from forests to grasslands, which is associated with global cooling. Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, Scenarios for Climate Assessment and Adaptation, Image by The High Fin Sperm Whale, created from images by NOAA National Weather Service training material (Wikimedia Commons, public domain), Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, Modified from a map by Adam Peterson (Wikimedia Commons, Photo by Bob Wick, Bureau of Land Management (flickr, public domain), Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, Photo by Richard Stephen Haynes (Wikimedia Commons, Photo of USNM PAL 165239 by Crinoid Type Project (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain), Photos of YPM IP 529539 by Jessica Utrup, 2015 (Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History/YPM, CC0 1.0 Universal/Public Domain Dedication, Photo of USNM P 38052 by Frederic Cochard (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain), Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license, Cretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life: Western Interior Seaway, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International, Photo of USNM 166396 from the Cretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, Inset image from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PIA03397), Photo by Jeffrey Beall (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, Photo by Kenneth Carpenter (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommerical 2.0 Generic license, Photo by Center for Land Use Interpretation, Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 license, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license, Photo by Dr. David Goodrich, NOAA (NOAA Photo Library ID wea04192, NOAA's National Weather Service, via flickr, Images by Lauren Dauphin, NASA Earth Observatory, Photos by Lauren Dauphin, NASA Earth Observatory, NASA Earth Observatory image by Lauren Dauphin (NASA Earth Observatory, Photo by Santa Fe National Forest (National Interagency Fire Center on flickr, public domain), https://earthathome.org/de/talk-about-climate/, https://earthathome.org/de/what-is-climate/, https://earthathome.org/de/recent-climate-change/, https://earthathome.org/de/climate-change-mitigation/, https://earthathome.org/de/climate-change-adaptation/, https://earthathome.org/quick-faqs/#climate, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International licenses. Inset image from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PIA03397). A major contributing factor to this event was a geological change that occurred far to the south. A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Nio, La Nia, and their impacts. The long-range forecast team breaks down region by region what to expect during the summer. Thus, even a small increase in temperature (which drives evaporation) or a decrease in precipitation in this already arid region can seriously threaten natural systems and society. In southern New Mexico and Arizona, shallow marine deposits, laid down when the ice in Gondwana retreated and sea level rose, alternate with layers of dust blown in when the ice in Gondwana advanced and sea level fell. This chart shows the percentage of land area in six southwestern states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) classified under drought conditions from 2000 through 2020. However, the Southwest is located between the mid-latitude and subtropical atmospheric circulation regimes, and this positioning relative to shifts in these . As of June 2022, it was more than 90% contained. Stages in the formation of a thunderstorm. Photo of USNM P 38052 by Frederic Cochard (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain). An ancient horse (Mesohippus),Eocene Florissant Fossil Beds, Teller County, Colorado. The Southwest, already the driest region in the United States, has become even drier since the mid-20th century, particularly on the hottest days . The Southwest Region climate in the United States is often associated with extremes. Published June 22, 2021 Updated Aug. 23, 2022. During the Paleocene to Eocene, the Southwests climate was warm and wet, and large mammals roamed the forested landscape. Map of the modern Yucatn Peninsula region showing the location of the Chicxulub impact crater. Large portions of the Southwest have experienced drought conditions since weekly Drought Monitor records began in 2000. The climate of the eastern plains is fairly uniform, with hot, windy summers and thunderstorms. Zack and Mike mention that last year was an extremely dry monsoon, and this year is extremely wet. Home Regions Southwest Key Points: Across New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah, summer rains originate from moisture brought into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. So is climate change increasing monsoon variability? Photo by Kenneth Carpenter (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and resized). Figure by Climate.gov. Photograph by Bill Morrow (Flickr;Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license). Eventually, a sheet of sea ice formed over the Arctic, and ice sheets spread over northern Asia, Europe, and North America, signaling the start of the most recent ice age. The main features that influence the areas climate are latitude, regional topography, and a low atmospheric moisture content that leads to quick evaporation. The inner canyon temperatures are extreme and hot, with a lower elevation of about 2400 feet (732 meters). The map in Figure 1 shows how average annual temperatures in the Southwest from 2000 to 2020differed from the average over the entire period since widespread temperature records became available (18952020). Large glaciers were found at higher elevations, and temperatures were cool. In general, places in the east and south of the UK tend to be drier, warmer, sunnier and less windy than those further west and north. According to the Kppen classification system, a system of climate classification using latitude band and degree of continentality as its primary forcing factors, Central Asia is a predominantly B-type climate regime. The pyrocumulonimbus cloud shown at the arrow was created by heat from the fire. Left:Lake Bonneville's maximal extent during the Pleistocene. Precipitation has become more variable from year to year, and heavy downpours across the U.S. have increased in the last 20 years. Ill be back on my regular beat in a couple of weeks with the September ENSO update. The result may be more destructive wildfires like the Calf Canyon-Hermit Peak wildfire in New Mexico. The first letter of each zone in the key indicates its major classification. Map by NOAA(public domain) modified for the[emailprotected]project. Data source: NOAA, 20214Web update: April2021, Key Points | Background | About the Data | Technical Documentation. As the Triassic period began, the Southwest moved north from the equator. North America's position near the equator kept its climate relatively warm. Title: Arizona Monsoon Thunderstorm. These deposits, including the Navajo Sandstone, are responsible for spectacular scenery in the national parks and recreation areas of northernmost Arizona and southern Utah. Thanks thats a big pool of warm water larger than the gulf of California and warmer than the greater Pacific Ocean. A strong temperature difference at different heights creates instability. Scale bar = 5 centimeters (about 2 inches). Reconstruction created using basemap from the PALEOMAP PaleoAtlas for GPlatesand the PaleoData Plotter Program, PALEOMAP Project by C. R. Scotese (2016); map annotations by Jonathan R. Hendricks for PRI's[emailprotected]project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0license). Summer temperatures on the South Rim, at 7000 feet (2134 meters), are especially pleasant from 50 to about 85 F (10s to 20s C). Page snapshot:Introduction to the climate of the southwestern United States, including present, past, and future climate. Right:Graph of the lake's changing level over time. The southwestern desert is hot, with winter daytime temperatures in the lower 60s and average summer daytime temperatures between 105 and 115F. This page uses Google Analytics. As of 2010, bark beetles in Arizona and New Mexico have affected more than twice the forest area burned by wildfires in those states. Despite the areas arid climate, the dunes were surprisingly full of life, particularly in southeastern Utah. The event devastated the Southwest, shifting a densely forested landscape to one primarily covered with fast-growing herbs and ferns. SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS. Modified fromFigure 11 in Kirby et al. PRI is a registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Droughts also contribute to increased pest outbreaks and wildfires, both of which damage local economies, and they reduce the amount of water available for generating electricityfor example, at the Hoover Dam.1. Streamflow totals for the decade of 2001-2010 in the Great Basin, Rio Grande, and Colorado River were between 5% and 37% lower than their 20. Higher atmospheric moisture content has also been correlated with an increased incidence of tornados and winter storms. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 10:13. For example, the difference in annual mean temperature between Pikes Peak (4302 meters or 14,114 feet) and Las Animas (1188 meters or 3898 feet), only 145 kilometers (90 miles) to the southeast, is equivalent to that between Iceland and southern Florida! The formation of precipitation also causes electrical charging of particles in the atmosphere, which in turn produces lightning. Skeleton of a juvenileCamarosaurs lentus, a type of sauropod, from the Carnegie Quarry, Jurassic Morrison Formation, Dinosaur National Monument, Utah and Colorado. Bark beetles, which normally die in cold weather, have been able to survive through the winter and reproduce, increasing tree mortality. Reconstruction created using basemap from thePALEOMAP PaleoAtlas for GPlatesand the PaleoData Plotter Program, PALEOMAP Project by C. R. Scotese (2016); map annotations by Jonathan R. Hendricks & Elizabeth J. Hermsen for PRI's[emailprotected]project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0license). Fossils of a cycad (Dioonopsis praespinulosa) from the Paleocene Castle Rock Flora, Colorado. The current drought outlooks expect that the drought in Arizona and New Mexico will improve in the short term, but persist. People in the Southwest are particularly dependent on surface water supplies like Lake Mead, which are vulnerable to evaporation. Lake Mead, the lake created by the Hoover Dam, at two points in time about 21 years apart. Fossil plants, Late Cretaceous Fruitland Formation, San Juan Basin, New Mexico. One especially alarming detail about the Calf Canyon fire is that it was originally set in January 2022. Acad. As the summer heat builds over North America, a region of high pressure forms over the U.S. Southwest, and the wind becomes more southerly, bringing moisture from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California. Ideas and explanations found in these posts should be attributed to the ENSO blog team, and not to NOAA (the agency) itself. Extent of the Western Interior Seaway during the Cretaceous Period. However, although climate change is predicted to enhance the intensity of severe weather, there is currently no way to calculate what effect climate change will have on the frequency of specific storm eventsfor example, we might see more powerful tornados, but we do not know if we will see more of them. Rugose corals or horn corals (Turbophyllum) from the Mississippian Great Blue Limestone, Cache Canyon, northern Utah, near the border between the Basin and Range and Rocky Mountain physiographic provinces. The Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary at Trinidad Lake State Park, Las Animas County, Colorado. Photo by Bob Wick, Bureau of Land Management (flickr, public domain). Right:Reconstruction of living animals. Warm, moist air from the south occasionally but infrequently moves into Colorado during the summer. As a result of displacement due to continental rifting and seafloor spreading, sea level throughout the Cretaceous was much higher than it is today. In New Mexico, climate is characterized by arid, semiarid, or continental conditions, with light precipitation, low humidity, and abundant sunshine. Photo by Archaeopoda (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, image cropped, resized, and labeled). These oases were fed by groundwater that originated in the higher country of what is now western Colorado. Cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Yuma, and Palm Springs have average highs over 100 F (38 C) during the summer months and lows in the 70s or even 80s. Like the Inside Passage, the weather in Southwest Alaska is heavily influenced by ocean currents and maritime conditions. 2. Figure by Emily Becker. In the podcast episode 2021a generational monsoon? Zack listed some of the factors that influence how much moisture is available to the monsoon, including the position of the high-pressure area, wind patterns, and transient weather features. On the other hand, there is not much agreement among projections for future change in the monsoon, except for regarding the timingmost projections suggest that, under continued climate change, the monsoon will start later in the summer and end later in the fall than it currently does (3). Right: As the vertical column of air turns over, with warm air at the top and cool air at the bottom, the storm begins to dissipate. The distance between Santa Fe and Las Vegas, New Mexico, is about 65 kilometers (about 40.5 miles). In the late Eocene, the Earth began to cool, and global temperatures fell sharply at the boundary between the Eocene and Oligocene epochs (approximately 35 million years ago), due in part to the separation of South Americas southern tip from Antarctica. Pleistocene Lake Bonneville. See you then! Reconstruction created usingPaleomap(by C. Scotese) forGPlates. Figure by climate.gov. However, while the effect of warming on the storms is uncertain, temperatures have been increasing. Glaciers covered most of the world's southern landmasses, which were located over the South Pole. Winter- The winter in the Southwest region is mild, and hot. The thicker line is a nine-year weighted average. Soil moisture, ground water, and streamflow are part of Drought Monitor calculations (Figure 2), and they are all sensitive to human activities. As the continents moved closer to their modern positions, the Southwest experienced a hot and humid tropical climate. Photo by James St. John (flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). Thanks for visiting the North American Monsoon region with me! Not really sure if it's possible to even find that rabbit hole let alone getting to the end of it :) Good luck. The Southwest is typically dry, hot, and humid. Modified from a map by Adam Peterson (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license). In Utah, areas below 1200 meters (4000 feet) receive less than 25 centimeters (10 inches) per year, while higher elevations in the Wasatch Mountains receive more than 100 centimeters (40 inches). The ENSO blog is written, edited, and moderated by Michelle LHeureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker (University of Miami/CIMAS), Nat Johnson (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), and Tom DiLiberto and Rebecca Lindsey (contractors to NOAA Climate Program Office), with periodic guest contributors. Data source: NOAA, 20212Web update: April2021. Has hurricanes and tornadoes. Wind moves the air, promoting mixing. Map modified from amap by Chiche Ojeda (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and modified). For example, parts of the Colorado Rockies experience cool annual temperatures and over 8 meters (25 feet) of snowfall every year, while the dry deserts in southwestern Arizona receive only about 8 centimeters (3 inches) of precipitation a year and can experience as much as a 15C (60F) degree temperature difference between night and day. Before the Isthmus closed, the Atlantic and Pacific oceans were connected. For the climate on early Earth prior to 541 million years ago, see the Introduction to Climate section. In a broad sense, the Southwests climate is mostly dry and hot, with much of the region characterized as arid. Unfortunately, unpredictable winds spread the flames, which, combined with dry conditions, caused the Calf Canyon and Hermit Peak fires to grow beyond control. Well those extra storms probably just go somewhere else because of the change in wind pattern that the El Nino brings, eh? The Southwest experiences nearly every variety of extreme weather; heat snaps and cold waves, droughts, floods, blizzards, and even tornados are all considerations for residents of the southwestern states. July 1August 22, 2021 precipitation shown as a percent of the average July 1August 22, based on 19792020. PRI's free resource to help you learn about the Earth and its history. The Santa Catalina Mountains near Tucson, Arizona are surrounded desert in which saguaro cacti grow. This planting zone combines saline water and alkaline soil with intense sunlight, high temperatures and varying elevations. The climate was drier than that of the Carboniferous, and mudflats with salt and gypsum formed across the Southwestern states. Every part of the Southwest experienced higher average temperatures between 2000 and 2020 than the long-term average (1895-2020). In 2020, Colorado ranked 7th in the nation for solar and wind power production, and Arizona and New Mexico ranked 12th and 13th, respectively. Pangaea was completed when North America finally collided with Gondwana. Approximately 3.5 million years ago, glacial ice began to form over the Arctic Ocean and on the northern parts of North America and Eurasia. 2010. The warmest temperatures in the Southwest are found in Arizona and New Mexico, while the coolest are found in Utah and Colorado. The continued growth of Pangaea created an intense monsoonal climate, similar to that of Asia today, that affected large parts of the continent. Average annual preciptiation for the southwestern U.S. Reconstruction created using basemap from thePALEOMAP PaleoAtlas for GPlatesand the PaleoData Plotter Program, PALEOMAP Project by C. R. Scotese (2016); map annotations by Jonathan R. Hendricks and Elizabeth J. Hermsen for PRI's[emailprotected]project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0license). Snowpack helps keep the ground and soil moist by covering it longer into the spring and summer, which delays the onset of the fire season and influences the prevalence and severity of wildfires. Every part of the Southwest experienced higher average temperatures between 2000 and 2020than the long-term average (18952020). Positive values represent wetter-than-average conditions, while negative values represent drier-than-average conditions. . USA 107(50):2125621262. Brown indicates areas where experts forecast drought will persist or worsen. Sci. Unless otherwise indicated, text and images on this website have Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International licenses. Is the tropical storm season done for this part of the country? Also extreme dryness which means days & weeks on end without rain. The world warmed, and would stay warm through the Mesozoic. Although the mountain building that occurred during this event was mostly far to the east, the Southwest was influenced by both fluctuating sea levels and a few significant tectonic changes. Other elements involved in the ignition and growth of fires and the risks they pose to people living in the Southwest include (but are not limited to) forest management practices, development patterns, and human behavior (intentionally or unintentionally starting fires). Dark gray is land, white and light gray are submerged areas. Copyright 2021 Paleontological Research Institution. Because high mountains to the west and north act as a barrier to cold Arctic air masses, most areas of Utah rarely experience temperatures below freezing or prolonged periods of extreme cold. Water supply is an important issue in the Southwest, and communities will need to adapt to changes in precipitation, snowmelt, and runoff as the climate changes. The Southwest has a hot desert climate, at lower elevations. Winter is the driest season in New Mexico, because precipitation from eastward-traveling Pacific storms is left behind in the western mountains of Arizona and Utah. Accessed March 2021. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx. The white arrow is pointing to one of the leaflets of a compound leaf. A large, low-latitude desert formed along Pangaea's western margin, generating extensive dune deposits. Monsoon rainfall activity tends to be grouped into bursts, with periods of rainy days interspersed with drier periods, rather than rain every day. Today nearly all the glaciers in the Southwest are gone, and the climate is in an arid state. Also, these favourable weather conditions usually occur more. Las Cruces is located in the Basin and Range region of New Mexico. All rights reserved. Photo by James St. John (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). This chart shows annual values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, averaged over six states in the Southwest (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah). These changes to rain and snow-pack are already stressing water sources and affecting agriculture. Warmer temperatures also make it easier for insect pests to overwinter and produce more generations. Photos of YPM IP 529539 by Jessica Utrup, 2015 (Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History/YPM,CC0 1.0 Universal/Public Domain Dedication, viaGBIF.org). (1) The North American Monsoon, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by David Adams and Andrew Comrie, provides a comprehensive overview of the North American Monsoon and related research through the late 20th century. Accessed March2021. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag. While the state is generally arid, its high western mountains experience more precipitation each year than the desert southwest and the high northeastern plateau do. Average is based on 19792020 using CPC Unified data. A car with a windshield damaged by hailstones, Limon, Colorado, 2010. Changes in atmospheric pressure during the late fall and winter can lead to an accumulation of haze. During the winter, moisture travels from the west, as storms from the Pacific Ocean move east. During this time, the only exposed areas were islands in western Colorado and parts of New Mexico. Cambrian trilobites from the Bright Angel Shale (Tonto Group), Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. The state's mountainous areas, however, have climate characteristics that more closely follow those found in the Colorado Rockies. Right:Sabalites, a palm leaf. Data source: National Drought Mitigation Center, 20213Web update: April2021. (41-60 degrees.) Elevation does, however, play a key role in precipitation received throughout the Southwest. In chapter 8.3, How is the water cycle changing and why?, the report states In summary, both paleoclimate evidence and observations indicate an intensification of the NAmerM in a warmer climate (medium confidence). Figures 2 and 3 show two ways of measuring drought in the Southwest: the Drought Monitor and the Palmer Drought Severity Index. P. Natl.

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